Instituto de Estudios Políticos y Derecho Público "Dr. Humberto J. La Roche"
de la Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Políticas de la Universidad del Zulia
Maracaibo, Venezuela
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Vol. 41, Nº 77 (2023), 809-829
IEPDP-Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Políticas - LUZ
Recibido el 02/01/23 Aceptado el 16/03/23
Democracy under Conditions of War:
Challenges and Prospects
DOI: https://doi.org/10.46398/cuestpol.4177.53
Oleκsandr Kondrashov *
Dmytro Nelipa **
Vasyl Kobylnyk ***
Mykola Karashchuk ****
Iryna Liashchenko *****
Abstract
The research exposed problems related to socio-economic,
political and social factors that directly or indirectly aect the
security of the population on the European continent and the
world. The analysis of cause-and-eect relations of the large-scale
military invasion of the Russian Federation allows developing
algorithms for implementing democratic processes for Ukraine
and for the countries of the European Union EU, and the whole
civilized world. The main scientic-research works devoted to the formation
of democratic societies were also analyzed, dening the specicities and
main features and strategic vectors of development. The population’s
perception of democracy, human rights and civil liberties in various
European nations was evaluated by using a sociological survey. As a result
of the research conducted, a model for the formation of democratic values
as a basis for the establishment of a democratic society was developed. It
is concluded that, it is desirable to develop further recommendations on
practical measures to protect freedom and democracy as the basis of value
orientations in the ght against military aggression and, the formation of
the foundations of the future security architecture in the world.
Keywords: large-scale military aggression; socio-economic challenges;
security architecture; freedom of speech; geopolitics in
Eastern Europe.
* Politology Department, Faculty of Philosophy, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 60,
Volodymyrska street, Kyiv, Ukraine. ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/ 0000-0003-3064-8572
** Politology Department, Faculty of Philosophy, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 60,
Volodymyrska street, Kyiv, Ukraine. ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5363-3990
*** Department of Political Science and Philosophy, Kamianets-Podilskyi Ivan Ohiienko National
University, 61, Ohiienko street, Kamianets-Podilskyi, Ukraine. ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-
0001-6927-4219
**** Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 60, Volodymyrska street, Kyiv, Ukraine. ORCID ID:
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5987-9086
***** Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 60, Volodymyrska street, Kyiv, Ukraine. ORCID ID:
https://orcid.org/0000–0001–5444–3470
810
Oleκsandr Kondrashov, Dmytro Nelipa, Vasyl Kobylnyk, Mykola Karashchuk y Iryna Liashchenko
Democracy under Conditions of War: Challenges and Prospects
Democracia en condiciones de guerra:
desafíos y perspectivas
Resumen
En la investigación se expusieron problemas relacionados con factores
socioeconómicos, políticos y sociales que afectan, directa o indirectamente,
la seguridad de la población en el continente europeo y el mundo. El análisis
de las relaciones de causa y efecto de la invasión militar a gran escala de
la Federación Rusa permite desarrollar algoritmos para implementar
procesos democráticos para Ucrania y para los países de la Unión Europea
UE, y todo el mundo civilizado. También se analizaron los principales
trabajos cientíco-investigativos dedicados a la formación de sociedades
democráticas, deniendo las especicidades y principales características y
vectores estratégicos de desarrollo. La percepción de la población sobre la
democracia, los derechos humanos y las libertades ciudadanas en varias
naciones europeas se evaluó mediante el uso de una encuesta sociológica.
Como resultado de la investigación realizada, se desarrolló un modelo de
formación de valores democráticos como base para el establecimiento de
una sociedad democrática. Se concluye que, es conveniente desarrollar más
recomendaciones sobre medidas prácticas para proteger la libertad y la
democracia como base de las orientaciones de valores en la lucha contra la
agresión militar y, la formación de los fundamentos de la futura arquitectura
de seguridad en el mundo.
Palabras clave: agresión militar a gran escala; desafíos socioeconómicos;
arquitectura de seguridad; libertad de expresión;
geopolítica en Europa del este.
Introduction
The security systems of Europe have experienced signicant challenges
with the beginning of the full-scale military invasion of the Russian
Federation into Ukraine. For the rst time since the Second World War,
the European continent faced a full-scale threat caused by an authoritarian
regime and the results of propaganda work.
The methods of forming public opinion in support of the war in the
Russian Federation are based on elements of propaganda that have been
known since the time of the Nazi regime. Unfair mass media, work with
opinion leaders, criminal prosecution of political opponents, and formation
of a negative attitude in society towards persons who have a viewpoint
opposite to the position of power determined the destruction of the
fundamentals of society’s democratic development.
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Vol. 41 Nº 77 (2023): 809-829
This caused mass emigration of the able-bodied population, political
persecution, and a lack of a negative attitude against aggression on the
territory of the aggressor country. Challenges to military aggression have
become challenges to human rights, freedom, democracy, and international
law in the civilized world. Ukraine, as an independent and sovereign state
that received security guarantees from the world’s leading countries,
including the Russian Federation, as part of the Budapest Memorandum,
was subjected to a military attack.
Accordingly, it should be understood that the existing security
architecture, the postulates of security guarantees, in particular, within
the framework of individual regulatory documents in the UN international
security system, do not work. The absence of eective mechanisms of
inuence on the aggressor countries has also been determined. The ow of
refugees who were forced to move to European countries, the USA, Canada
and other countries have become a new challenge for social and economic
security.
More than 8 million refugees were forced to leave Ukraine aected social-
economic and social-political processes. Support for Ukraine’s democratic
aspirations, and its desire to join the European community and become a
member of the international security system have created new challenges
and requirements for establishing a democratic society at the global level.
Therefore, it is expedient to consider certain aspects of the inuence
on the processes of establishing democracy in dierent countries of the
world and to identify those shortcomings that must be overcome to ensure
the normal functioning of countries within the framework of an eective
system of democratic international law.
Therefore, the purpose of the academic paper is to determine the
cause-and-eect relationships of developing democratic processes and
establishing security architecture as a new paradigm of social development.
To achieve the purpose of the research, the following aims were fullled,
namely:
• a retrospective analysis of the cause-and-eect relationships of the
largest military conicts in the world and military aggression on the
territory of the USSR and the countries of the former post-Soviet
space was conducted;
• the interrelationships of the factors of developing democracy and
ensuring peace in the territory of the countries of the former post-
Soviet space and the countries of Europe were determined;
• a sociological survey of the relationship to democratic processes
in Ukraine, European countries and the Russian Federation was
conducted;
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Oleκsandr Kondrashov, Dmytro Nelipa, Vasyl Kobylnyk, Mykola Karashchuk y Iryna Liashchenko
Democracy under Conditions of War: Challenges and Prospects
• factors aecting the population’s attitude to the development of
democratic processes were determined;
• a model of the architecture of society’s democratic development as a
future paradigm of social development was constructed.
1. Literature Review
Tolerance development is the cornerstone of a democratic society.
Intercultural dialogue is the basis of global democratic development.
Determining the mechanisms of forming a tolerant attitude of people
toward each other in the conditions of global social-economic and social-
political challenges is a signicant task of scientic and applied studies.
Several scholars dene the function of educational processes as a
component of the core principles of democracy. The democratic values
include the right to freedom of expression, freedom of thinking, participation
in public life, and tolerance, i.e., freedom for all people without interfering
with the rights of others (Roij, 2022).
The analysis of democratic challenges of a global nature made it
possible to group the issues of democracy development: formation of
authoritarian regimes and their spread, activation of terrorist organizations,
fundamentalism, and organized crime. The reasons for this situation are
imperfect mechanisms for implementing democratic rights and freedoms.
International law is rather of a recommendatory nature.
After all, there are no eective mechanisms of inuence on the
implementation of normative approaches to the formation of democratic
principles. Democracy formation is rather a task of civil society, which can
only be done through developing public activity, education, the formation
of tolerance and the development of intercultural ties, social security
(Silander, 2022).
The concepts of social security and social development are signicant
elements of a democratic society. These concepts have a dynamic character,
presenting national and regional dierences of states and peoples. The
formation of public and social features takes place under the inuence
of various historical processes, political, national, traditional, cultural,
economic, geographical, climatic, and household dierences.
Several authors analyze the processes of public and social security of the
world’s largest democracy – the United States of America. The American
nation has a unique character because its creation is based on multicultural
and multinational features. The main value of society is freedom and
democracy. Neoliberal concepts of development consist in establishing
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CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 41 Nº 77 (2023): 809-829
social priorities and economic paradigms in their interrelationship (Dahms,
2022).
The global challenges of democratic societies, identied in the studies of
numerous scientists, can be grouped into the following elements (Silander
and Simunkombwe, 2022):
• freedom of choice, electability and accessibility to electoral bodies;
• freedom of speech, freedom of mass media, lack of restrictions on
information in social networks;
• the priority of a people-centered approach when making social-
economic and social-political decisions;
• protection of private property and a person’s economic interests;
• ensuring security;
• ensuring self-development, education, access to social services;
• equality and tolerance;
• freedom of political opinion, opportunities to express one’s opinion
through public actions.
Negative tendencies in developing anti-democratic processes in poor
countries are one of the global challenges. Only global transformations can
ensure global development. The analysis of democratic transformations in
African countries made it possible to identify the following issues (Silander
and Malmgren, 2022):
• authoritarian regimes;
• lack of the population’s rights and freedoms;
• development of corruption;
• civil conicts, terrorist threats;
• lack of protection of life and health, private property;
• lack of equitable regulatory and legal frameworks without divisions
between private and public spheres of inuence.
Military conicts destroying the principles of freedom and democracy
are a great challenge for the democratic, civilized world. Conducting a
critical review of the impact of military actions on democratic processes
made it possible to determine their inuence on social-economic processes.
Military conicts have a negative impact on economic development,
reducing the level of social security.
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Oleκsandr Kondrashov, Dmytro Nelipa, Vasyl Kobylnyk, Mykola Karashchuk y Iryna Liashchenko
Democracy under Conditions of War: Challenges and Prospects
Concurrently, it is important to bear in mind that in the conditions of
conict, violent actions, physical injuries, and an important process during
the conict and after its end is social security, in particular, psychological
and physiological rehabilitation, treatment, restoration of housing and life
support infrastructure, etc. Therefore, in the conditions of social security
requirements, the processes of democratic development take a back seat in
the post-war reconstruction (Owens, 2022).
The Cold War is one of the examples of social needs in conditions
of political instability. The development of countries with democratic
fundamentals determined the provision of the population’s high life
quality. At the same time, authoritarian societies lead to humanitarian and
social problems, the solutions of which are related to openness to global
processes, and not to ensuring development by extensive methods. This
signicantly limits the implementation of the potential of the country and
its population (Prabhakar, 2022).
The Cold War aected various regions the countries of Africa, which
were divided by geopolitical inuence into capitalist and communist ones.
The development of these countries depended only on external inuences,
and not through the formation of stable state entities, which are possible
only in conditions of democratic development (Jean-Baptiste, 2022;
Silander, 2022b).
The creation of a balance between democratic procedures and global
challenges is a crucial issue in the context of the security architecture
formation in the world. Security architecture is related to understanding
the rules of the global world order and their acceptance by all players of the
international geopolitical space (van Riet, 2022).
The Russian Federation’s full-scale military aggression against Ukraine
posed new threats to global democracy and the security system that
emerged after World War II. The aggressive policy of the aggressor country
was provoked by the lack of eective mechanisms for containing military
conicts in the conditions of modern law and order in the global sense.
The formation of sustainable development priorities as a system of
international world perception in the conditions of military aggression
is determined by a system that requires signicant transformations.
Mechanisms of international positioning, developed and implemented by
the UN, show their ineciency, forasmuch as they cannot stop the bloody
conict (Bin-Nashwan et al., 2022; Lopatovska et al., 2022). Therefore, it
is expedient to consider issues related to establishing a model of security
architecture’s new processes in the conditions of new global challenges,
in particular, the full-scale military aggression of the Russian Federation
against Ukraine.
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CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
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2. Methodology
The academic paper analyzes scientic studies of the processes of
democracy development in various countries of the world, including those
where military or civil conicts took place. Based on the analysis, the cause-
and-eect relationships of the processes of ensuring the country’s security
and democratic changes were determined.
A comparative analysis of the cause-and-eect relationships of
inuencing factors and the consequences of development processes and
oppression of democracy in dierent countries of the world made it possible
to determine the prerequisites for the formation of military conicts.
A sociological survey of the population of Ukraine and European
countries (in 2022) and the population of the Russian Federation (in
2021 due to the lack of the possibility of performing a survey in 2022) was
conducted concerning the issue of developing democracy in the country,
national values, development priorities.
The research hypotheses were conrmed by correlation-regression
analysis of sociological survey data and the relationships between
democratic and human development indicators. A model of the architecture
of the democratic advancement of society as a prospective paradigm of
social development has been created using modeling techniques.
3. Results
As a result of studying literary sources representing the scientic and
research works of several authors devoted to the issues of democracy’s role
in the processes of social development and the construction of security
architecture, the directions of social development that exert a signicant
inuence on the formation of conditions for peace, security and global
cooperation were determined, in particular, as follows:
• development of open good-neighborly relations based on mutual
respect, tolerance, and recognition of the role of each nation and
each state in the processes of global human development;
• determination of opportunities for open competition formation,
fair access to international markets, formation of transparent
mechanisms for the organization of the international trade system
and fair distribution of income;
• creation of eective mechanisms for control of arms buildup systems
and determination of eective mechanisms for deterring military
aggression;
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Oleκsandr Kondrashov, Dmytro Nelipa, Vasyl Kobylnyk, Mykola Karashchuk y Iryna Liashchenko
Democracy under Conditions of War: Challenges and Prospects
• development of international legal documents that would regulate
foreign policy processes based on the supremacy of international
law;
• formation of tolerance and tolerant attitude of people towards each
other;
• creation of conditions for self-identication, development of
national self-awareness without creating conditions for separatism
development;
• freedom of speech, freedom of movement, freedom of public
association, the impartiality of mass media and the possibility of
free expression of will, struggle against political persecution and
oppression on religious, political, ethnic and other grounds.
Analyzing the cause-and-eect relationships of military conicts of
recent years, world wars and political instability in the countries of the
post-Soviet space and Europe, Table 1 was drawn up.
Table 1. Grouping of cause-and-eect relationships of military conicts and
social development.
Military
conict Reasons Social prerequisites
Implications
for democracy
development
World
War I
Redistribution
of geopolitical
interests.
The signicant branching
of society into pluralistic
and authoritarian
monarchical ones.
Technological
backwardness,
the need for social
transformations in the
territories that were
under the power of the
authoritarian monarchy,
which signicantly
slowed down the
processes of their
development.
The spread of the
processes of social
development, the
introduction of
technologies, the
cooperation of
production processes,
as a result, the
improvement of the
population’s standard of
living and the formation
of social values.
World War
II
Redistribution
of geopolitical
interests, the
consequences
of territories’
distribution after
the World War
I, the struggle of
totalitarian regimes.
The formation of
totalitarian regimes
aimed at military
aggression’s goals and
expanding the territories
of inuence, the
acquisition of territories
with additional
resources, the ideology of
the superiority of some
nations over others.
Destruction of
nationalist ideology,
transition to a new
world order, formation
of openness, freedom of
Western democracies.
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CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 41 Nº 77 (2023): 809-829
War
between
North and
South Korea
The struggle of
a totalitarian
communist regime
against a democratic
society.
The formation of two
polar state formations –
totalitarian communist
and democratic, which
promoted freedom and
pluralism.
Global isolation of the
totalitarian regime and
the development of
science, technology and
economy in conditions
of freedom as a form of
motivation.
War in Iraq
The ght against the
totalitarian regime
of Saddam Hussein,
the distribution of
spheres of inuence
in the Middle East.
Threats to democratic
societies on the part
of a totalitarian state,
threats of international
terrorism.
The development of
democratic processes in
the country; a negative
aspect is social-economic
instability and the
lack of eective state
institutions and security.
War in
Afghanistan
The geopolitical
conict that has
been going on since
the 1980s over
the distribution of
spheres of inuence
in Central Asia,
the ght against
terrorist groups and
fundamentalism.
The presence of a
clan system of power
organization, geopolitical
instability.
The destruction of the
democratic society’s
fundamentals that
emerged in the country,
the rise to power of
Islamic fundamentalists
with restrictions on the
rights and freedoms of
the population, poverty
and lack of development
in the country.
Russian-
Chechen
war
The struggle of the
Chechen Republic
of Ichkeria for
independence and
withdrawal from the
Russian Federation.
Activation of national
resistance on the
territory of the Russian
Federation after the
collapse of the USSR
with demands for
greater powers and/or
independence.
Limitation of rights
and freedoms, lack of
practical implementation
of legislative
mechanisms that should
operate on the territory
of Chechnya, usurpation
of power.
Russian-
Georgian
war
Struggle for
inuence on
territories that were
the cause of armed
conicts after the
collapse of the
Soviet Union.
Eorts to solve the
problems of the frozen
conict related to
territorial claims as a
result of the collapse
of the USSR and
uncertainty in the issues
of belonging to a number
of territories (South
Ossetia, Abkhazia,
Transnistria, Nagorno-
Karabakh).
The presence of
unrecognized republics
as territories that cannot
fully develop due to an
uncertain status, the
formation of corrupt
puppet authorities
dependent on the
Russian government in
these territories.
War in
Yugoslavia
The struggle against
authoritarian
regimes and
genocide on
national grounds.
Genocide organized
by the ruling party,
which represented
the interests of the
Serbs, an authoritarian
regime that did not
allow solving issues of a
national nature through
public discussion and
establishing mutually
benecial conditions.
Disintegration of
the country into
territories based on
national divisions, the
development of freedom
and democracy in new
territories, unication
with the European
space, in particular,
membership in the EU
with the corresponding
introduction of norms
and standards specic to
the EU.
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Oleκsandr Kondrashov, Dmytro Nelipa, Vasyl Kobylnyk, Mykola Karashchuk y Iryna Liashchenko
Democracy under Conditions of War: Challenges and Prospects
Russian-
Ukrainian
war
The desire of
authoritarian
regimes to revive
the geopolitical
positions of the
former USSR,
the struggle for
resources, spheres
of inuence.
Genocide of the
Ukrainian people, caused
by Russian Federation
which, with the help
of military aggression
and propaganda, tried
to spread authoritarian
orders on the
independent territory
of Ukraine through
occupation and political
struggle with persons
who do not support the
occupation regime.
The formation of a
powerful movement of
national self-awareness,
the protection of
freedom and democracy
against an authoritarian
regime, the formation
of a system of European
values.
Source: prepared by the authors.
Analyzing the social causes and consequences of military conicts,
their role in the formation of democratic principles, and general laws was
determined, which are presented in the form of the following hypotheses:
• authoritarian regimes maintain power on the basis of the formation
of an internal or external enemy; the support of power in conditions
of restriction of freedoms and democracy is connected with the
unication of the population around the ght against a potential
threat – democratic and free societies;
• military conicts can lead to two starting points for the state:
the rst is negative – the destruction of the fundamentals of
statehood, democratic institutions, the formation of totalitarian
or authoritarian, sometimes religious fundamentalist regimes or
military juntas with subsequent usurpation of power; the second
is positive – the transition of the state from an authoritarian to a
democratic society,
• democratic societies are characterized by pluralistic social
phenomena, which are a form of people’s motivation for
entrepreneurial activity, technological development, investment
activity, obtaining a competitive education and improving
qualications. Pluralistic societies have signicant advantages
in development over authoritarian and totalitarian regimes in
conditions of free competition and freedom of choice. Therefore,
the struggle of democratic values with authoritarian restrictions is
an element of society’s progress and development at the global level.
In order to conrm the proposed three hypotheses (authoritarian
regimes are based on creating an image of the enemy and ghting against
it; military conicts can be the result of the decline of state institutions or
the development of the democracy’s fundamentals; democratic societies
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CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 41 Nº 77 (2023): 809-829
are more motivated in the aspect of ensuring development), it is proposed
to conduct a retrospective analysis of the historical heritage and carry out
a sociological survey, the form of which was developed and proposed in the
research (it was described in the section on research methods).
To provide mathematical evidence for the relevance of the put-forward
theories of cause-and-eect relationships in the development of democracy,
available sociological data were analyzed and a sociological survey was
conducted. The results of the sociological survey are represented in Fig. 1.
Table 2. A retrospective of historical events conrming the developed
hypotheses of the interrelationship between democratic processes and military
conicts.
Hypothesis Historical events
conrming it Consequences Recommendations
Authoritarian
regimes are
based on creating
an image of
the enemy and
ghting against it
The Nazi regime and
the struggle with the
Jews for the purity
of Aryan blood; the
communist regime
and the struggle
with capitalist
countries; the
totalitarian regime
of North Korea and
the struggle with
the capitalist south.
The Khmer Rouge
regime in Cambodia
that triggered the
war with Vietnam.
The authoritarian
regimes of Iraq and
Iran, which fought
on religious grounds.
The overthrow of
totalitarian regimes
with the transition
to democratic
freedoms, the
country’s complete
international
isolation, the scaling
of totalitarian
terror due to the
deterioration of the
social-economic
situation and the
need to preserve
power through
repression due to the
population’s growing
dissatisfaction.
Conducting a
well-thought-out
information policy
aimed at preventing
the formation of
totalitarian regimes,
implementing
international
programs for the
development of
civil society to
form a system of
resistance to such
regimes, spreading
the principles of
democracy, the
values of freedom and
pluralism.
Military conicts
can be the
result of the
decline of state
institutions or the
development of
the democracy’s
fundamentals
The decline of state
institutions after the
change of colonial
regimes and the
transfer of power
to local elites; civil
wars and social-
economic instability
of countries in Africa
and Latin America
(for example,
Colombia, the
Democratic Republic
of the Congo,
Myanmar, Nigeria,
Somalia, Sudan).
Social-political
instability due to the
intervention of other
states: Afghanistan,
Iraq, Syria.
The loss of powers
by state institutions
leads to the
destruction of
other institutions
– social-economic
ones. Such a system
leads to a rapid
increase in poverty,
the impossibility of
establishing eective
economic processes,
and a decrease
in the level of the
population’s social
security.
Formation of the
conditions for
developing democratic
processes, primarily,
in the formation of
power systems, by
adapting the world’s
leading experience
and cooperation
with international
organizations in the
eld of peace and
security.
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Oleκsandr Kondrashov, Dmytro Nelipa, Vasyl Kobylnyk, Mykola Karashchuk y Iryna Liashchenko
Democracy under Conditions of War: Challenges and Prospects
Democratic
societies are more
motivated in the
aspect of ensuring
development
Countries with a high
level of economy
development, social
security, engineering
and technology are
democratic, open to
global cooperation,
tolerant and have
priorities in ensuring
the rights and
freedoms of the
population: the USA,
Germany, France,
Japan, South Korea,
and South Africa.
Democratic
processes create
competitive
conditions in
the economy,
entrepreneurship,
and technology
development. Self-
regulation promotes
the spread of social
and economic
development’
best practices.
Accordingly, in
the absence o=f
restrictions, a person
has motivation for
development and
self-fulllment
as a competitive
advantage in the
labor market, in
business, social
security, etc.
Implementation
of deregulation
processes, especially
in economic
systems, with the
aim of providing
the population
with freedom of
development, which
is the basis of the
state’s development as
a synergistic eect of
developing individual
subjects of economic
activity, government,
particular individuals,
etc.
Source: prepared by the authors.
Analysis of the attitude towards democratic processes shows that democracy
is a basic priority of state development for EU countries. More than 98% of
respondents dene it as a basic value; this indicator (99%) has been consistently
high since 2021.
Analyzing indicators of the attitude to democracy in Ukraine, it is expedient to
determine that this indicator is consistently high and has a steady upward trend. In
2022, this indicator reached its maximum of 95%. The development of the trend
line’s projection, represented in Fig. 2, shows that by 2025, the indicator of the
attitude towards democracy as a basic value of society in Ukraine will be similar to
the indicators of the survey of respondents in the EU countries.
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Vol. 41 Nº 77 (2023): 809-829
Fig. 1. Dynamics of changes in the indicator of support for democracy in the
analyzed countries.
*Source: based on sociological survey data [VoxUkraine] (1995-2021) and a sociological
survey as of 2022.
It is interesting that in 1995-1996, the indicator of the attitude to
democracy in the Russian Federation was only 45% (almost half less than
in the same period in Ukraine), and it increased in 2006. However, after
developing a projection of the research results, it was determined that the
indicator of democracy perception as a basic social value in Russia has a
downward trend and may reach minimum values by 2025.
In order to understand such a rapid growth of attitudes towards
democratic values in the conditions of an authoritarian power regime, it is
expedient to determine the concepts included in the context of the democracy
denition in the analyzed countries. The results of the sociological survey
are represented in Fig. 2.
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Oleκsandr Kondrashov, Dmytro Nelipa, Vasyl Kobylnyk, Mykola Karashchuk y Iryna Liashchenko
Democracy under Conditions of War: Challenges and Prospects
Fig. 2. Results of a sociological survey on the understanding of the concept of
democracy and its elements, 2021.
* Source: based on sociological survey data [VoxUkraine] and a sociological survey.
The results of the sociological survey determine that the indicator of
the relationship to democratic processes of Ukraine and EU countries
has smaller deviations than the indicators of the Russian Federation and
European countries, where the deviations are signicant. The greatest
deviations are observed when it comes to specic human actions aimed at
the formation of democratic values, for example, participation in strikes,
boycotts, signing petitions, participation in elections, especially local ones.
All these elements, in fact, are a manifestation of citizens’ participation in
the formation of a democratic society. The indicators of such participation
are minimal for the Russian Federation.
Considering the aggravation of the situation with manifesting freedom
of speech and expressing will in 2022 in connection with full-scale military
aggression and political persecution of persons who disagree with the
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authorities’ standpoint, such public activity has only decreased in 2022.
With low public activity of the population, there is a high level of support
for the state government and the leader.
More than half of the respondents prioritize the need to obey the political
will of the state leader, without questioning his decisions, whatever they
may be (regarding restrictions on freedom of speech, political persecution,
the formation of a corrupt system, bringing one’s friends and relatives
to power, the hereditary transfer of power, changes to the constitution,
starting a war, mobilization, etc.).
A strong military is the priority for the population, while the economy
is the priority for democratic societies. Given that a third of the population
denes the army as the basic purpose of the country; the level of trust in
the army is lower than in democratic societies. Despite the high priority
of law enforcement agencies as a system of supporting law and order and
the existing state order, the majority of respondents dene a higher level of
danger than in democratic societies. Only a third of those surveyed dene
freedom of speech as a priority of a democratic society.
Therefore, it is expedient to note that according to the results of the
conducted sociological survey, it was determined that authoritarian
societies replace the democracy concept, dening it only as the stability of
social-political processes.
The majority of respondents do not associate themselves with society
as full-edged members of this society; they do not dene themselves as a
person of the world, which determines distrust and limited contacts with
representatives of other countries. This signicantly limits the outlook and
format of thinking of the population of authoritarian regimes, building an
idea of the advantages of the existing political regime and determining its
uniqueness.
It is proposed to analyze the results of assessing several indices: the
democracy index, the human development index to conrm the hypothesis
proposed in the research, that democratic societies are more motivated in
the aspect of ensuring development. It was already partially conrmed by
the results of a sociological survey, where it was revealed that respondents
from Ukraine and EU countries identied their personal role in social-
political and social-economic processes, as well as determined the priority
of economic development.
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Democracy under Conditions of War: Challenges and Prospects
Table 3. Correlation interrelationships of the democracy index,
the human development index.
Place in
the rating Country Democracy
index Human
development index
1/1 Norway 9,81 9,49
2/9 Iceland 9,37 0,92
3/7 Sweden 9,26 9,25
4/14 New Zealand 9,25 0,93
5/10 Canada 9,24 9,2
6/11 Finland 9,20 0,93
7/5 Denmark 9,15 9,25
12/3 Switzerland 8,83 9,39
79/74 Ukraine 5,81 0,78
124/52 The Russian Federation 3,31 0,82
164/151 Syria 1,43 0,57
165/188 Central African Republic 1,32 0,39
166/149 DR Congo 1,13 0,57
167 North Korea 1,08 -
* Source [Human Development Report, 2021; Democracy Index, 2021].
The indicator of the democracy index is calculated by determining
such indicators as the electoral process and pluralism, the government’s
functioning, participation in country’s political life, and the development
of political culture and civil rights. That is, these indicators conrm
the statement about the role of pluralism as an element of a democratic
society. The indicator of the human development index is calculated as a
set of indicators for determining the level of poverty, literacy, education, life
expectancy, health care, social indicators, the level of environmental safety,
GDP, the level of freedom of speech and other indicators.
Analyzing interrelationship’s indicators between the democracy index
and the human development index, a high correlation dependence of the
indicators was determined, namely 0,62. The conrmation of the developed
hypothesis is also a place in the ranking of the democracy index and
human development index calculation: the countries that are in the TOP-
10 countries according to the democracy index are also found in the TOP-
20 countries with the highest index of human development. Accordingly,
the countries with the worst indicators of democratic development have
the lowest indicators of the human development index, which statistically
conrms the hypotheses developed in the research.
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Based on the developed hypotheses, an architecture’s model of society’s
democratic development as a future paradigm of social development was
formed – Fig. 3.
Fig. 3. Model of the architecture of society’s democratic development. Source:
prepared by the authors.
The developed model is represented as a system’s elements: input-
output information that is transformed by implementing the proposed
mechanisms.
4. Discussion
As a result of the research, hypotheses were put forward regarding the
role of democratic transformations in social development and political
processes. In particular, the inuence of the cause-and-eect relationships
of military aggression to the level of democracy in society was considered.
One of the hypotheses determines that authoritarian regimes use military
conicts by forming the idea of external enemies as a tool to preserve the
regime in conditions of social-economic development’s low indicators.
The absence of democratic processes is closely linked to inadequate
measures of socio-economic progress, which was proven by analyzing
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Oleκsandr Kondrashov, Dmytro Nelipa, Vasyl Kobylnyk, Mykola Karashchuk y Iryna Liashchenko
Democracy under Conditions of War: Challenges and Prospects
the role of pluralistic processes in motivating the population to engage
in entrepreneurial and investment activity. The developed hypotheses
are of a debatable nature. However, they were conrmed by the results
of sociological surveys, their analytical studies and the determination of
correlations between the democracy index and the human development
index of the world’s countries.
In subsequent studies, it is planned to determine the transformations
that took place with the beginning of full-scale military aggression regarding
the main issues of Ukraine’s social development. Based on the conducted
analysis, it is advisable to develop recommendations on practical measures
to protect freedom and democracy as the basis of value orientations in the
ght against military aggression and the formation of the fundamentals of
the future security architecture in the world.
Conclusion
Through the comprehensive research conducted, specically focusing
on a retrospective examination of cause-and-eect dynamics within major
global military conicts and military aggression, a deeper understanding of
the interplay between democracy development and peacekeeping factors
has been achieved. The hypotheses formulated based on this analysis
have been substantiated through a sociological survey that gauged public
attitudes towards democratic processes in Ukraine, various European
nations, and the Russian Federation.
Consequently, the culmination of this research eort has resulted in
the formulation of a comprehensive model outlining the architectural
framework for the future development of democratic societies, thus
presenting a paradigm shift in social and political progress.
This model serves as a blueprint for shaping the trajectory of society,
ensuring the realization of democratic ideals and fostering sustainable
growth. By incorporating the ndings and insights from this study,
policymakers and stakeholders can eectively implement strategies and
policies that facilitate democratic development, leading to enhanced
stability and prosperity on both national and global scales.
The conducted research has yielded signicant insights, not only
in terms of retrospective analysis of cause-and-eect relationships
within major military conicts worldwide but also in understanding the
complexities surrounding military aggression in the territory of the post-
Soviet countries. By examining these historical events, it became evident
that the development of democracy and the maintenance of peace are
deeply intertwined factors.
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CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 41 Nº 77 (2023): 809-829
Building upon this understanding, hypotheses were formulated and
subsequently conrmed through a comprehensive sociological survey. The
ndings of this survey provided invaluable data to support the research
outcomes and shed light on public perceptions of democracy in dierent
regions.
Based on the accumulated knowledge and insights, a groundbreaking
model for the architecture of society’s democratic development emerged.
This model stands as a guiding framework, oering a vision for the future
paradigm of social and political progress. It recognizes the fundamental
importance of democratic principles in shaping the trajectory of societies
and outlines strategies for their implementation.
By adopting this model, policymakers and stakeholders can eectively
navigate the challenges of the ever-changing global landscape. It presents
a blueprint for fostering democratic ideals, ensuring that societies are built
on principles of freedom, equality, and justice. Moreover, it serves as a
foundation for sustainable growth, as societies that embrace democratic
values are more likely to experience stability and prosperity.
In practical terms, the implications of this research extend beyond
theoretical discussions. The model’s recommendations can be translated
into actionable measures aimed at protecting and promoting freedom and
democracy in the face of military aggression. By prioritizing democratic
values and integrating them into the fabric of society, nations can establish
resilient security architectures that safeguard the well-being and aspirations
of their citizens.
In conclusion, the conducted research has contributed to our
understanding of the complex relationship between democracy, peace,
and social-economic development. The developed model for society’s
democratic development provides a forward-thinking approach to shape
the future trajectory of nations, emphasizing the importance of democratic
values as the bedrock of a prosperous and secure world.
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Esta revista fue editada en formato digital y publicada
en abril de 2023, por el Fondo Editorial Serbiluz,
Universidad del Zulia. Maracaibo-Venezuela
Vol.41 Nº 77
