Instituto de Estudios Políticos y Derecho Público "Dr. Humberto J. La Roche"
de la Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Políticas de la Universidad del Zulia
Maracaibo, Venezuela
Esta publicación cientíca en formato digital es continuidad de la revista impresa
ISSN-Versión Impresa 0798-1406 / ISSN-Versión on line 2542-3185Depósito legal pp
197402ZU34
ppi 201502ZU4645
Vol.39 N° 68
Enero
Junio
2021
Recibido el 04/09/2020 Aceptado el 16/01/2021
ISSN 0798- 1406 ~ De pó si to le gal pp 198502ZU132
Cues tio nes Po lí ti cas
La re vis ta Cues tio nes Po lí ti cas, es una pu bli ca ción aus pi cia da por el Ins ti tu to
de Es tu dios Po lí ti cos y De re cho Pú bli co “Dr. Hum ber to J. La Ro che” (IEPDP) de la Fa-
cul tad de Cien cias Ju rí di cas y Po lí ti cas de la Uni ver si dad del Zu lia.
En tre sus ob je ti vos fi gu ran: con tri buir con el pro gre so cien tí fi co de las Cien cias
Hu ma nas y So cia les, a tra vés de la di vul ga ción de los re sul ta dos lo gra dos por sus in ves-
ti ga do res; es ti mu lar la in ves ti ga ción en es tas áreas del sa ber; y pro pi ciar la pre sen ta-
ción, dis cu sión y con fron ta ción de las ideas y avan ces cien tí fi cos con com pro mi so so cial.
Cues tio nes Po lí ti cas apa re ce dos ve ces al año y pu bli ca tra ba jos ori gi na les con
avan ces o re sul ta dos de in ves ti ga ción en las áreas de Cien cia Po lí ti ca y De re cho Pú bli-
co, los cua les son so me ti dos a la con si de ra ción de ár bi tros ca li fi ca dos.
ESTA PU BLI CA CIÓN APA RE CE RE SE ÑA DA, EN TRE OTROS ÍN DI CES, EN
:
Re vicyhLUZ, In ter na tio nal Po li ti cal Scien ce Abs tracts, Re vis ta In ter ame ri ca na de
Bi blio gra fía, en el Cen tro La ti no ame ri ca no para el De sa rrol lo (CLAD), en Bi blio-
gra fía So cio Eco nó mi ca de Ve ne zue la de RE DIN SE, In ter na tio nal Bi blio graphy of
Po li ti cal Scien ce, Re vencyt, His pa nic Ame ri can Pe rio di cals In dex/HAPI), Ul ri ch’s
Pe rio di cals Di rec tory, EBS CO. Se en cuen tra acre di ta da al Re gis tro de Pu bli ca cio-
nes Cien tí fi cas y Tec no ló gi cas Ve ne zo la nas del FO NA CIT, La tin dex.
Di rec to ra
L
OIRALITH
M. C
HIRINOS
P
ORTILLO
Co mi té Edi tor
Eduviges Morales Villalobos
Fabiola Tavares Duarte
Ma ría Eu ge nia Soto Hernández
Nila Leal González
Carmen Pérez Baralt
Co mi té Ase sor
Pedro Bracho Grand
J. M. Del ga do Ocan do
José Ce rra da
Ri car do Com bel las
An gel Lom bar di
Die ter Nohlen
Al fre do Ra mos Ji mé nez
Go ran Ther born
Frie drich Welsch
Asis ten tes Ad mi nis tra ti vos
Joan López Urdaneta y Nil da Ma rín
Re vis ta Cues tio nes Po lí ti cas. Av. Gua ji ra. Uni ver si dad del Zu lia. Nú cleo Hu ma nís ti co. Fa-
cul tad de Cien cias Ju rí di cas y Po lí ti cas. Ins ti tu to de Es tu dios Po lí ti cos y De re cho Pú bli co
“Dr. Hum ber to J. La Ro che”. Ma ra cai bo, Ve ne zue la. E- mail: cues tio nes po li ti cas@gmail.
com ~ loi chi ri nos por til lo@gmail.com. Te le fax: 58- 0261- 4127018.
Vol. 39, Nº 68 (Enero - Junio) 2021, 290-314
IEPDP-Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Políticas - LUZ
Diversication Rate of Energy Balance
and Energy Export Demand Risk
Impacts on Economic Growth:
The Case of Azerbaijan
DOI: https://doi.org/10.46398/cuestpol.3968.18
Shahin V. Bayramov
1
*
Gulsura Y. Mehdiyeva
2
**
Agil A. Eyvazov
3
***
Elchin R. Mustafayev
4
****
Abstract
The objective of the article was to examine the level of
diversication of the energy balance and energy export demand,
as well as its impacts on economic growth to ensure energy
security in Azerbaijan. Forthe research, the Risk Energy Export Demand
Index and its four sub-indexes, i.e.,1) export dependence, were used; 2)
risk of monopsonium; (3) the risk of transaction costs; 4) Comparative
quantitative assessment of the economic importance of different types
of energy in the country’s energy exports. The Herndahl-Hirschman
index and the Shannon-Wiener index were used for the assessment of the
diversication and concentration rate. The OLS method, the ADF test and
cointegration were used to assess the relationship between indicators. It is
concluded that the share ofenergy obtained from renewable sources in the
country’s energy balance is very low (about 3%), and the energy obtained
from these sources is mainly used for electricity production. Since an
essential part of the country’s energy balance is in hydrocarbon reserves,
the level of diversication is low.
Keywords: energy balance; renewable energy sources; energy security;
risk of demand for energy exports; Azerbaijan.
* PhD, associate professor, Mingachevir State University, Azerbaijan. ORCID ID: https://orcid.
org/0000-0002-1720-606X. Email: sh.bayramov@gmail.com
** PhD, associate professor, Institute of Economics of Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, ORCID
ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8016-9548. Email: gulsura@list.ru
*** PhD, associate professor, Institute of Economics of Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences. ORCID
ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7988-2805. Email: aqil.eyvazov@internet.ru
**** PhD, associate professor Azerbaijan Technical University. ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-
5131-3387. Email: elchin.mustafayev.80@mail.ru
291
CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 39 Nº 68 (Enero - Junio 2021): 290-314
Tasa de diversicación del equilibrio energético y
riesgo de demanda de energía afecta al crecimiento
económico: El caso de Azerbaiyán
Resumen
El objetivo del artículo fue examinar el nivel de diversicación del
balance energético y la demanda de exportación de energía, así como
sus impactos en el crecimiento económico para garantizar la seguridad
energética en Azerbaiyán. Para la investigación se utilizó el Índice de
Demanda de Exportación de Energía Riesgo y sus cuatro subíndices,
es decir, 1) dependencia de las exportaciones; 2) riesgo de monopsonio;
3) el riesgo de los costos de transacción; 4) Evaluación cuantitativa
comparativa de la importancia económica de los diferentes tipos de energía
en las exportaciones energéticas del país. Para la evaluación de la tasa
de diversicación y concentración se utilizaron el índice de Herndahl-
Hirschman y el índice de Shannon-Wiener. Para evaluar la relación entre los
indicadores se utilizó el método OLS, la prueba ADF y la cointegración. Se
concluye que la participación de la energía obtenida de fuentes renovables
en el balance energético del país es muy baja (alrededor del 3%), y la energía
obtenida de estas fuentes se utiliza principalmente para la producción de
electricidad. Dado que una parte esencial del balance energético del país
está en las reservas de hidrocarburos, el nivel de diversicación es bajo.
Palabras clave: balance energético; fuentes de energía renovable;
seguridad energética; riesgo de demanda de exportación
de energía; Azerbaiyán.
Introduction
Population growth and technical progress have led to increased energy
demand globally. The disproportionate distribution of energy between
countries and the increasingly rapid depletion of energy sources has
made energy security a global problem. On the other hand, the use of
hydrocarbons for energy production dramatically increases emissions into
the environment and creates additional environmental problems. Countries
are trying to use various methods, including alternative energy sources, to
sustainably ensure their energy security and a healthy environment.
Studies by the International Energy Agency (IEA), multinational
corporations, think tanks on energy issues show that the full use of existing
oil, gas and coal deposits will lead the world to energy problems in about
40-50 years. The discovery of new resources is becoming increasingly
difcult from year to year. Alternative energy sources, especially renewable
energy sources (RES), are still technically imperfect or signicantly more
292
Shahin V. Bayramov, Gulsura Y. Mehdiyeva, Agil A. Eyvazov y Elchin R. Mustafayev
Diversication Rate of Energy Balance and Energy Export Demand Risk Impacts on Economic
Growth: The Case of Azerbaijan
expensive for small countries, including for Azerbaijan (Gulaliyev et al.,
2020a).
Azerbaijan is one of the few countries in the world that has a large
amount of hydrocarbon reserves and currently does not have a serious
threat to energy supply. On the contrary, Azerbaijan plays an important
role in the energy supply of several European countries, Ukraine, Israel,
Turkey, and Georgia. However, since the main energy reserves around
the world, including in Azerbaijan, can be exhausted, the development
of alternative energy sources for sustainable energy supply in the near
future is important. Reducing the production of hydrocarbon reserves in
order to preserve them for future generations is impossible in the existing
international and geopolitical conditions, although it is consistent with the
concept of sustainable development. However, a certain part of the income
received from the extraction of hydrocarbon resources can be considered
from an economic point of view as an investment in the development of
renewable energy projects.
However, such important economic steps require serious calculations
and justication of their effectiveness. First of all, it is important to nd
answers to several questions: 1) What is the current state of Azerbaijan’s
energy balance and its dynamics of the past 10-15 years? 2) How can we
assess the importance of RES in the energy balance of Azerbaijan? 3) Is
there any relationship between diversication or consentration rate of
energy balance and economic growth? 4) Is there any relationship between
energy export demand risks and economic growth?
1. Literature review
Four different aspects of energy security are highlighted in the economic
literature. The Asia-Pacic Energy Research Center (APERC, 2019) calls
these aspects: 1) availability of energy resources, 2) accessibility of energy
resources, 3) environmental acceptability of the energy resources and 4)
commercialization of energy resources. In studies, the presence of energy
resources basically means the existence of a large number of proven natural
resources. Accessibility of resources (accessibility) implies the possibility of
technical extraction of natural resources for use, as well as legal opportunities
for the extraction process. Environmental acceptability is related to the
environmental impact of energy resources. Thus, the use of nuclear energy
is a serious risk to the environment and human life. In addition, the use of
coal, oil and gas is the main source of carbon dioxide emissions into the
environment, which is why one of the most important political decisions
is to reduce the use of these resources. Fourth, the commercialization of
energy resources (affordability) refers to the risks associated with the cost
of these resources. Since when energy prices are too high, new threats to
energy supply arise.
293
CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 39 Nº 68 (Enero - Junio 2021): 290-314
Although energy security has always been the focus of attention both
at the state level and at the household level, as a global problem, they have
become the center of economic research since the 1970s. The risk of using
oil production as an instrument of international political pressure by oil-
producing countries has caused serious concern in oil-importing countries
amid growing demand for oil. Yergin (1988), who investigated the role of oil
in global politics, believed that energy security was possible due to sufcient
production volumes and sustainable energy supplies at a fair price. As the
problem of energy security worsens, the scope of economic research in this
area are also expanding, and currently the problems of supply and demand
for all energy sources are the subject of research at different levels.
In their research, Cherp (2012), as well as Hughes and Phillip
(2006),
evaluated global energy security issues. The increasingly acute global
environmental problems require the study of global energy security in
the context of resolving environmental problems. Turton and Barreto
(2006) believe that geopolitical development and climate change should
be taken into account to ensure the long-term sustainability of the global
energy system. Some authors, for example, Sovacool and Mukherjee (2011),
consider that the availability of energy resources from a nancial point of
view, the availability of energy sources and their environmental safety are
part of energy security. Muñoz et al., (2015) believe that energy security
has technical, economic, social, political, environmental and geopolitical
aspects.
Energy security must be quantiable because it has different levels.
Quantitative assessment of energy security in the economic literature is
carried out through a separate or joint assessment of its aspects. For example,
in the studies conducted by Costantini et. al., (2007) the dependence of
energy security on imports was studied. As well as dependence problems
on market concentration and resource availability was studied by the
International Energy Agency (IEA, 2007), dependence problem on market
diversication was by Stirling (2009; 1998) identies three main aspects
of energy availability in his research as 1) a variety of categories; 2) the
proportion of the distribution between the respective categories; and 3) the
quantitative size of the categories. The quantitative variety of categories
characterizes the number of existing and available energy resources.
Valdés (2018), Ang et al., (2015), Erahman et al., (2016), Apergis et al.,
(2015), Bandura (2008), Gasser (2020) and other researchers have been
classied a lot of studies on energy security. Quantitative measurement of
energy security and the reliability of such methods remain an important
issue in research on energy security.
The Herndahl-Hirschmann Index
(HHI) allows us to determine the degree of diversication in the production,
consumption, and supply of energy products in any country. If the country is an
energy importer, then HHI also allows determining the degree of dependence on
294
Shahin V. Bayramov, Gulsura Y. Mehdiyeva, Agil A. Eyvazov y Elchin R. Mustafayev
Diversication Rate of Energy Balance and Energy Export Demand Risk Impacts on Economic
Growth: The Case of Azerbaijan
which countries for energy supply. If a country cooperates with more countries in
energy supply and diversication of energy supply is higher and concentration is
lower, then energy security will be higher. Thus, the weakening of the country’s
relations with any country that supplies it with energy will pose less of a threat
to energy security. As Azerbaijan exports energy, we are more interested in the
degree of diversication of the types of energy it produces. Because only one
type of energy production, such as oil, can pose a threat to energy security in the
future. Thus, in case of oil depletion, the country may have difculty meeting its
energy needs.
Risky External Energy Supply-REES allows you to make a comparative
assessment of potential risks to energy supply in the short term. This index
assumes that short-term energy import outages cannot be eliminated by
the market. It is also taken into account that the intermittent supply of one
energy carrier cannot be replaced by others. For this reason, the REEDI is
calculated separately for each energy carrier. In this sense, REEDI differs
from other energy security indices and is a non-aggregate index.
Research on the effects of energy security on economic growth is
common in economic literature. For example, Balitskiy et al., (2014) studied
the impact of energy security on economic growth in 26 EU member states
from 1997 to 2011. The result of this study is that there is a positive link
between long-term economic growth and gas consumption. In the short
term, there is a two-way cause-and-effect relationship between these two
indicators. Mahmood and Ayaz (2018) explored the link between energy
security and economic growth in Pakistan between 1980 and 2012. Here
is the difference between supply and demand for energy, such as energy
security. The result is that there is a causal link between Pakistan’s energy
security and economic growth, both in the long run and in the short term.
The gap between energy demand and supply has a negative impact on
economic growth.
There is little research on the direct effects of energy diversication
and the REEDI on economic growth. However, there is a lot of research on
the impact of world oil and gas prices on the economies of oil-importing
and exporting countries. When world oil and gas prices change, revenues
from energy exports decrease. If revenues from energy exports dominate
the country’s GDP, then the risk of demand for energy exports increases.
On the other hand, if the degree of diversication in energy production is
high, in the event of a decrease in the world price of one type of energy, the
income from the export prices of another can be compensated. However,
weak diversication reduces the country’s energy security and increases the
risk of budget revenues. These problems have been described by various
researchers as the impact of oil prices on the income of the exporting
country, For example, Alekhina and Yoshino (2018) in the example of
European countries, Heidarian and Green (1989) in the example of Algeria,
295
CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 39 Nº 68 (Enero - Junio 2021): 290-314
Al-Moneef (2006) in the example of Arab oil-exporting countries, Dreger
and Rahmani (2014) on the example of the Iranian economy, Hassan and
Abdullah (2014) on the example of the Sudanese economy, Olayungbo and
Adediran (2017) on the example of Nigeriaç Humbatova and Hajiyev (2019)
on the example of the Azerbaijani economy investigated this problem.
2. Methodology and data
It is important to assess the energy security of oil-exporting countries,
including Azerbaijan, from three aspects. The rst is a security and risk
assessment aimed at supply to meet current and future demand in the
country. Thus, Azerbaijani oil has been produced in large quantities over
the past 150 years, and in the coming 30-40 years, it is expected to decline
sharply and even pose a threat to domestic demand. However, the presence
of large gas elds in the country and the expansion of the exploitation of
these elds have a positive impact on the energy balance and can play an
important role in ensuring energy security in the future. Second, as an oil
exporter, Azerbaijan depends on the volume of demand in oil-importing
countries, as well as uctuations in oil prices on world markets.
The sharp drop in prices has a serious impact on the Azerbaijani
economy. Third, are environmental risks. Thus, oil and gas production,
rening, and transportation in the country have a negative impact on
the environment. Taking these into account, in order to quantify energy
security for Azerbaijan, it is necessary to 1) assess the diversify rate of the
energy balance; 2) assess the risk to the demand of importers to Azerbaijan
oil, and 3) assess the economic growth’s dependence on HHI and REEDI.
We will use the Herndahl-Hirschmann and Shannon-Wiener index to
assess the diversication rate of energy balance, as well as the Risky Energy
Export Demand Index to assess the security connected with energy export
demand.
In the general case, the energy balance can be described as a three-
stage system. Each stage of the energy balance can be described as a matrix
consisting of several sub-stages. In some sources, for example,
UN (1982),
IEA (2004), Codoni
et. al., (1985) these stages are characterized as the
stage of “supply”, “conversion” and “demand”. The role of renewable energy
in energy supply and consumption of the country can be understood by
determining their position in the energy balance at all stages. The need to
invest in the development of renewable energy sources and increase the
efciency of their use requires an assessment of the dynamics of electricity
demand in the country. To assess the Herndahl-Hirschman index we will
use formule HHİ=∑
n
i
p
2
i
and to assess the Shannon-Wiener index we will
use formule Sİ=-∑
n
i
p
i
* ln(p
i
).
296
Shahin V. Bayramov, Gulsura Y. Mehdiyeva, Agil A. Eyvazov y Elchin R. Mustafayev
Diversication Rate of Energy Balance and Energy Export Demand Risk Impacts on Economic
Growth: The Case of Azerbaijan
Risky Energy Export Demand Index (REEDI), developed by Dike (2013),
covers four sub-indices as a composite index. These sub-indices are 1) export
dependence (X); 2) monopsony risk (M); 3) the risk of transaction costs
(D); 4) quantitative comparative assessment of the economic importance
of different types of energy in the country’s energy exports (E). Dike (2013)
used this index to assess the risk of demand for energy exports for 12 OPEC
countries. The main assumptions for the application of this index are that
the country exports oil and gas, as well as the number of exporting countries,
is 3 or more. The REED index assesses current and potential risks for the
short term. Azerbaijan is also an oil and gas exporter and has more than
three exporting countries. Therefore, we will calculate the REED index for
Azerbaijan using this method developed by Dike (2013).
The rst sub-index of the REED index, i.e. the dependence of the
country’s economy on energy exports (X), is calculated as the ratio of
energy exports to total exports. The higher this ratio, the higher the risk of
the country’s dependence on energy exports.
Where TEE
t
- total energy export volume in US dollars, TE
t
- total export
volume in US dollars.
The second sub-index of the REED index, i.e. the monopsony factor (M),
is the share of the total energy exported to the energy importing country.
The higher this gure, the higher the monopsony capacity of that country at
the export risk of the exporting country. The HH index is used to calculate
the monopsony factor (M):
Where M
t
- monopcony factor in t-year, EE
it
- volume of energy export to
the i country in t-year, TEE
t
- valume of total energy export of the exporting
country in t-year.
The third component of the REED index, i.e. transaction costs, includes
costs that may arise as a result of disruptions in transport and infrastructure.
Here, scores 1-3 are taken for transaction costs, depending on the distance
between the capitals of the importing country and the exporting countries.
Thus, if the distance is up to 1500 km, transaction costs are between 1,
1500-4000 km, transaction costs are 2, more than 4000 km, transaction
costs are considered as 3. The higher the transaction costs, the greater the
risks.
297
CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 39 Nº 68 (Enero - Junio 2021): 290-314
The fourth sub-index of the REED index, i.e. the economic importance
of exported energy sources, is calculated as the share of the export value of
the energy sources (for example, oil and gas) in US dollars in the country’s
production:
Dike (2013) calculates REED index as follows:
The higher REED
t
is higher energy export demand risk of the exporter
country.
To assess relationship between energy balance diversication- (or
consentration-SI) rate and economic growth (GDPG
t
=∆GDP
t
/ GDP
t-1
), as
well as relationship between REEDI
t
and economic growth will be used OLS
method as follows.
(1)
To assess these relationships, we will adopt following hipothethis:
1. H
0
: There are not regration relationships between GDPG
t
and 1)
HHİ
t
; 2) Sİ
t
; 3) REEDI
t
;
2. H
1
: rejecting of the H
0
, i.e. there are regration relationships between
GDPG
t
and 1)HHİ
t
; 2) Sİ
t
; 3) REEDI
t
;
To awoid spurious regression between these indicators we will test time
series for stationarity
1. Augemented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for three models: a) withour
intercept and trend (Δy
t
= γ * y
t-1
+ ν
t
); b) with intercept, but without
298
Shahin V. Bayramov, Gulsura Y. Mehdiyeva, Agil A. Eyvazov y Elchin R. Mustafayev
Diversication Rate of Energy Balance and Energy Export Demand Risk Impacts on Economic
Growth: The Case of Azerbaijan
trend (Δy
t
= α + γ * y
t-1
+ ν
t
); and c) with intercept and trend (Δy
t
= α
+ λ * t + γ * y
t-1
+ ν
t
).
2. To test for cointegration of independent and dependent variables
we will test stationarity ε
t
; δ
t
; ν
t
from equation (1).
When checking the stationarity of time series, the values proposed in
Table 1, proposed by Davidson and MacKinnon (1993), will be taken as
critical values of τ
c
-tau statistics.
1% 5% 10%
Δy
t
= γ * y
t-1
+ ν
t
-2.56 -1.94 -1.62
Δy
t
= α + γ * y
t-1
+ ν
t
-3.43 -2.86 -2.57
Δy
t
= α + λ * t + γ * y
t-1
+ ν
t
-3.96 -3.41 -3.13
Standart kritik qiymtlr -2.33 -1.65 -1.28
Table 1. Critical values of τ
c
-tau statistics for Dickey-Fuller testiing
Source: Davidson and MacKinnon (1993)
The data used in the study on key indicators were obtained from two
sources - the World Bank database (WB, 2020) and the ofcial database
of the State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SSCRA,
2020).
3. Results
3.1 Energy balance dynamics of Azerbaijan
The rst component of the energy balance of any country - the total
energy supply is formed by adding primary energy products to the
extraction, the volume of imports and resources, and subtracting from
the total volume of exports, the amounts spent on refueling international
ights, including refueling ships and aircraft. The excess of exports over
imports or a decrease in the share of imports in the total energy supply are
important indicators of the country’s energy security. That is why the World
Energy Trilemma Index (WEC, 2019), calculated on the basis of energy
security, environmental sustainability and energy efciency (affordability
and energy acquisition), specically takes into account diversication of the
initial energy supply, dependence on imports, etc. of countries. It is worth
noting that although Azerbaijan’s rating on this indicator is slightly lower
than in 2017 compared to 2015 and 2016, in terms of “BBA” scores it ranks
299
CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 39 Nº 68 (Enero - Junio 2021): 290-314
31st among 125 countries and is close to a number of developed countries.
Azerbaijan’s rating on this indicator is higher than that of some European
countries and all countries of the region.
Energy security, which is the rst component of the tripartite index
of world energy, qualitatively assesses how efciently the initial energy
supply is regulated, as well as the ability of energy suppliers to meet current
and future energy needs. Although Azerbaijan has retained a rating of “B”
for this indicator over the past 3 years, its rating has slightly decreased.
Energy assets, which are the second component of the tripartite index of
world energy, which qualitatively assesses the availability and possibility of
acquiring energy supply among the population. The indicator of Azerbaijan
is also close to developed countries in this component. Since over the past
three years, Azerbaijan’s rating has changed from 47 points to 44 points
and is constantly evaluated at the “B” level.
The third component of the tripartite index of world energy - a
sustainable environment qualitatively evaluates the efciency of energy
production on demand and supply, the possibility of producing energy
supply with less carbon emissions. Azerbaijan takes 19th place among 125
countries in this component. This is a rather high indicator, and Azerbaijan
has a rating of “A” for this indicator.
The tripartite index of world energy along with the fact that it covers
almost all the key stages of the country’s energy balance, also makes it
possible to evaluate these stages in terms of energy security, social problems,
and environmental sustainability. Therefore, the energy balance should
not be regarded as a simple matrix of facts, but rather, as a database that
allows you to assess social, economic, and environmental consequences
and predict them.
İller
Total
production
Crude oil
(with gas
condensate)
Natural
gas
Renwable energy
sources and
waste
1995 641626.3 383552.7 252472 5601.6
1996 626190.4 380998.8 239590 5601.6
1997 612018.2 379784.6 226632 5601.6
1998 696283.6 478300 212382 5601.6
1999 811559.1 578071.5 227886 5601.6
2000 806782.2 586863.8 214396 5522.4
2001 839223.6 624210 210330 4683.6
300
Shahin V. Bayramov, Gulsura Y. Mehdiyeva, Agil A. Eyvazov y Elchin R. Mustafayev
Diversication Rate of Energy Balance and Energy Export Demand Risk Impacts on Economic
Growth: The Case of Azerbaijan
2002 844747.9 642003.9 195472 7272
2003 847727.7 643971.7 194864 8892
2004 850733.5 651005.5 189810 9918
2005 1158704 930055.8 217816 10832.4
2006 1704950 1350997 344888 9064.8
2007 2,269,031.0 1,835,057.7 421,780.3 12,193.0
2008 2,565,289.7 1,917,618.6 636,110.6 11,560.5
2009 2,818,890.5 2,171,866.6 635,662.8 11,361.1
2010 2,858,233.9 2,190,821.4 651,235.7 16,176.8
2011 2,618,978.9 1,966,215.5 639,076.3 13,687.1
2012 2,553,315.5 1,869,193.6 673,476.4 10,645.5
2013 2,583,691.9 1,872,753.2 698,982.6 11,956.1
2014 2,559,924.2 1,813,210.2 735,363.1 11,350.9
2015 2,557,914.5 1,793,930.0 751,362.1 12,622.4
2016 2,511,579.5 1,769,025.9 731,109.5 11,444.1
2017 2,388,389.4 1,667,237.9 710,345.1 10,806.4
2018 2,434,337.5 1,672,663.4 750,229.3 11,444.8
Table 2. Production of primary energy products (PES) (terajoule)
Note: calculated by the authors by converting “oil equvalent”, metr cube” and
KWh to terajoule of the SSCRA (2020) datas
Increasing of the volume of primary energy products in Azerbaijan over
the past 20 years in terajoules and the preservation of relative stability
ensures that there is no serious threat to energy security in the near future.
Particularly, attention is paid to increasing gas production and achieving
stability of the total volume in terms of a slight decreasing of crude oil
production. Unfortunately, the amount of renewable energy in this volume
is very small. Although the volume of RES in 2010 increased to 16,000
terajoules, the average volume of renewable energy over the past decade
has been about 12,000 terajoules (Fig. 1). But this is about 0.47% of the
total primary energy production (Fig. 2).
301
CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 39 Nº 68 (Enero - Junio 2021): 290-314
Fig. 1. The dynamics of the
production of primary energy
product (terajoule)
Figure 2. Share of renewable
energy in the total production of
primary energy product (%)
The country’s energy supply, as well as production capacity or the
amount of exported valume of energy connected with energy security
but cannot be considered as unique indicators of energy security of the
country. For example, the energy security level of the countries such as Iran
or Nigeria, which occupy leading positions in the export of hydrocarbon
resources, is lower than in some countries with lesser resources (Sweden,
Estonia, etc.). Under the current conditions of deepening globalization,
greater diversication of energy supply increases the energy security level.
Since the bulk of primary energy products (crude oil and gas) are exported
from Azerbaijan (approximately 75%), the total energy supply is a small part
of the volume of produced primary energy products (about 25%). Over the
past decade, imports of energy products have risen sharply. Although this
volume does not have much weight in the overall energy supply, its growing
dynamics and structure may threaten the country’s energy security in the
future. Since the bulk of imported energy products are oil products, as well
as other types of gasoline and kerosene, including diesel fuel, low sulfur fuel
oil, petroleum bitumen, other types of oil products, natural gas, electricity,
and other types of fuel. Such import and export operations do not pose a
serious threat to regional energy security. However, replacing imported
gasoline with domestic products is important for a future sustainable fuel
supply.
The share of RES in the total energy supply is very small (Fig. 3) and
amounts to about 2%, with the exception of 2010. In 2010, this gure was
just over 3%. For comparison, we note that the share of alternative sources
and renewable energy sources in the total energy supply in Norway rich in
oil exceeds 44%, and in Australia, which is rich in hydrocarbon resources,
exceeds 33%.
302
Shahin V. Bayramov, Gulsura Y. Mehdiyeva, Agil A. Eyvazov y Elchin R. Mustafayev
Diversication Rate of Energy Balance and Energy Export Demand Risk Impacts on Economic
Growth: The Case of Azerbaijan
Fig. 3. Shares of energy supply
in the amount of primary energy
products extraction and import
volume (terajoule)
Fig. 4. The volume of renewable
energy in the total energy supply
(%)
Crude oil is an indispensable product in the production of chemicals,
which are important for various sectors of the economy. The burning of
such a product to generate electricity signicantly reduces the efciency of
its use. That is why in Azerbaijan, crude oil is not used for the production
of heat and electricity. For the production of heat and electricity, low sulfur
oil and natural gas are used. The volume of thermal and electric energy
produced in the country is increasing every year. Of course, the amount
of electricity is about 10 times greater than the amount of thermal energy.
The initial energy received from renewable energy is almost completely
used in the transformation process. After the transformation process, the
amount of energy received from RES and directed to nal consumption does
not have a large share in the amount of energy directed to transformation.
More precisely, modern technological equipment is still not able to increase
the efciency of the renewable energy transformation process to the level
of energy efciency obtained from gas conversion. Since the efciency for
obtaining thermal and electric energy from gas for nal consumption is
about 33%, and the coefcient of electric energy from renewable energy for
nal consumption does not exceed 13%.
303
CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 39 Nº 68 (Enero - Junio 2021): 290-314
Fig.5. Dynamics of nal
consumption in the energy balance
of Azerbaijan (terajoule)
Fig. 6. Volume of nal
consumption of renewable energy
(terajoule)
Oil products, natural gas, renewable energy sources, thermal energy,
electric energy and other types of fuel are used as Azerbaijan’s nal
consumer goods. Final consumption is divided into two groups: “nal
consumption for energy” and “nal consumption not for energy”. Final
consumption for energy purposes is used in such subgroups as industry and
construction, transport and in other sectors of the economy. Approximately
17.1% of the energy provided for nal consumption is used in subgroups
of industry and construction. These industries cover areas such as ferrous
metallurgy, chemical and petrochemical industries, non-ferrous metallurgy,
non-metallic mineral products, transportation equipment, machinery and
equipment, mining, food and tobacco, paper, pulp and printing, wood
processing and production of wood products, textile, leather and clothing
industry, construction, and other industries.
In 2018, 28% of the energy provided for nal consumption is used in
the transport subgroup. This subgroup includes road transport, railway
transport, inland air transport, inland water transport, pipeline transport
and other modes of transport. A signicant part of the energy directed
to nal consumption (approximately 56%) is used in other sectors of the
economy, for example, in agriculture, trade and public services, households,
etc. A certain part of nal consumption (approximately 13%) is used for
non-energy purposes.
304
Shahin V. Bayramov, Gulsura Y. Mehdiyeva, Agil A. Eyvazov y Elchin R. Mustafayev
Diversication Rate of Energy Balance and Energy Export Demand Risk Impacts on Economic
Growth: The Case of Azerbaijan
Fig. 7. Dynamics of production
of heat (yellow line) and electric
energy (blue line) in Azerbaijan
(terajoule)
Fig. 8. The share of the nal
consumption of renewable energy
for energy purposes in the total
energy consumption (%)
The volume of nal energy consumption in Azerbaijan over the past 10
years has been continuously growing. On the other hand, the volume of
use of thermal and electric energy among the types of energy directed to
nal consumption also grows. The share of electric energy obtained from
renewable energy sources, not only has a small share in the total energy
consumption, but also sharply decreased in recent years (Fig. 8). The current
trend in the development of renewable energy suggests that rich oil and gas
resources should not interfere with stimulating the use of renewable energy
and investing in this area. Since the experience of developed countries
shows that the development of renewable energy is important to ensure
sustainable energy security. The main reason for the low share of renewable
energy in the energy balance of oil-rich countries, of course, is the desire to
get energy from hydrocarbon resources in an easier way and to abandon
the additional investment in high-tech renewable energy sources. Another
serious reason is that the cost of energy from renewable energy sources is
still high and monopolistic electricity price is lower (Gulaliyev et al, 2020b).
4. Energy balance diversication (or consentration) rate and
Risky Energy Export Demand index of Azerbaijan
Calculation of energy balance diversication (or energy balance
concentration) rate, and energy export demand security of Azerbaijan by
using HHI, SI, and REEDI consistently, gives the following results (Table
3). Over the past 20 years, all these indicators changed year by year.
During 1995-2019 period HHI has a minimum score (0.512) in 1995 and
maximum score (0.689) in 2007. This period SI has a minimum score
(0.513) in 2007 and maximum score (0.689) in 1995. Both indices indicate
that diversication is low. This also means that, despite the high level of
305
CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 39 Nº 68 (Enero - Junio 2021): 290-314
energy security that is currently being ensured in Azerbaijan, the bulk of
the supply of primary energy products falls on hydrocarbon reserves, which
in turn may create problems in the future if these reserves are reduced.
In particular, an alarming fact for energy security is that the proportion of
energy from renewable energy sources in the energy balance is low. The
level of diversication in the nal volume of consumption is low. However,
the Shannon-Wiener index in the industry is approximately two times
higher than the level of diversication of primary energy production. The
Herndahl-Hirschman index can be said to not have changed fundamentally.
As Azerbaijan is rich with energy resources and there are almost no
risks associated with energy supply for the near future, we believe that
the main risks are related to the demand for oil and gas exports from
Azerbaijan. Therefore, we accept the REED index as one of the indicators
for Azerbaijan’s energy security.
Diversication of
primary energy
production
Share
of oil
and gaz
export
in total
export-
Share
of oil
and gaz
export
in
GDP-
Monopsony
Risky
Energy
Export
Demand
index
Indeksi Indeksi
1995 - 0.512 0.716 -
1996 0.041 0.517 0.712 66.390 0.132 0.191 5.012
1997 0.247 0.522 0.707 61.448 0.121 0.153 3.412
1998 0.122 0.565 0.659 68.931 0.094 0.116 2.256
1999 0.030 0.586 0.633 78.596 0.159 0.146 5.475
2000 0.151 0.600 0.618 85.081 0.282 0.222 15.935
2001 0.083 0.616 0.596 91.328 0.370 0.342 34.669
2002 0.093 0.631 0.588 88.922 0.309 0.270 22.255
2003 0.167 0.630 0.595 86.011 0.306 0.289 22.867
2004 0.193 0.635 0.591 82.216 0.342 0.223 18.863
2005 0.526 0.680 0.534 76.765 0.443 0.124 12.690
2006 0.584 0.669 0.535 84.591 0.525 0.227 30.233
2007 0.575 0.689 0.513 81.399 0.524 0.085 10.878
2008 0.478 0.620 0.588 97.083 0.608 0.193 34.216
2009 -0.093 0.644 0.559 92.857 0.442 0.108 13.274
2010 0.194 0.639 0.570 94.509 0.473 0.139 18.575
306
Shahin V. Bayramov, Gulsura Y. Mehdiyeva, Agil A. Eyvazov y Elchin R. Mustafayev
Diversication Rate of Energy Balance and Energy Export Demand Risk Impacts on Economic
Growth: The Case of Azerbaijan
2011 0.247 0.623 0.587 94.747 0.496 0.161 22.650
2012 0.057 0.606 0.603 93.419 0.437 0.090 10.977
2013 0.064 0.599 0.612 92.985 0.397 0.099 11.002
2014 0.015 0.584 0.627 92.638 0.348 0.087 8.381
2015 -0.295 0.578 0.635 88.285 0.276 0.075 5.463
2016 -0.287 0.581 0.631 91.541 0.317 0.131 11.399
2017 0.079 0.576 0.636 91.119 0.345 0.146 13.733
2018 0.153 0.567 0.646 92.222 0.397 0.119 13.047
2019 0.020 91.239 0.380 0.123 12.740
Table 3. Dynamics of Economic groüthç Energy balance
diversication rate and Risky Energy Export Demand index of Azerbaijan
Note: calculated by the authors
5. İmpacts of energy balance diversication rate and energy
export demand on economic growth
The regression relationship between the rate of diversication (or
concentration) of the production component of the energy balance calculated
by HHI and SI shows that there is a signicant relationship between these
indicators. Calculations show that there is a similar relationship between
economic growth and the Risky Energy Demand (REED) index (Table 4).
Thus, an increase in the degree of diversication has a positive effect on
economic growth, and an increase in the degree of concentration has a
negative effect. The Risky Energy Export Demand Index is also positively
related to economic growth. This means that the restriction of the number
of importing countries of Azerbaijan oil and gas resources (monopsony),
the sharp increase in the share of oil and gas in export and GDP amount
have positive impacts on economic growth, but also threatens the country’s
energy security and increases the REEDI.
HHİ
t
Sİ
t
REEDİ
t
R
2
0.299645 0.27067 0.169602
Observation 23 23 24
F-signicance 0.006861 0.010931 0.045546
α
0
coefcient -1.57996 1.626039 -0.01067
307
CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 39 Nº 68 (Enero - Junio 2021): 290-314
Standart deviation 0.578223 0.530787 0.084521
t-statistics -2.73244 3.063449 -0.12626
p-value 0.012478 0.005899 0.900676
α
1
coefcient 2.848825 -2.43149 0.010278
Standart deviation 0.950411 0.870972 0.004849
t-statistics 2.997466 -2.79169 2.119746
p-value 0.006861 0.010931 0.045546
Table 4. Relationship between HHİ
t
(or Sİ
t
), REEDİ
t
, and economic
growth
Note: calculated by the authors
To be sure that these relationships are not spurious we need to test the
stationarity of the GDPG
t
, HHİ
t
, Sİ
t
and REEDİ
t
and time series or to test
cointegration between independent and dependent variables.
Stationarity of the GDPG
t
, HHİ
t
, SI
t
, and REEDİ
t
time series
(ADF test)
Note that the maximum lag = 5 will be taken to check the stationarity of
the time series of these indicators. As a method, the least-squares method
(OLS) is selected, and the Schwartz information criterion is used. The
hypothesis H
0
for the time series of the indicators is existing of a unit root.
The H
1
hypothesis is the rejection of H
0
, that is, the time series does not
have a single root. The results of the analysis conducted using the E-Views
software package are given in Table 5. It can be seen from the table 5 that
none of the time series is stationary in for models.
No intercept, no trend (Δy
t
= β * y
t-1
+ ν
t
)
R-
squared
coefcient
Std. error
t-
statistics
probability
Mac-
Kinnon
one sided
p-value
GDPG
(t)
GDPG
(t-1)
0.137694 -0.275040 0.146732 -1.874437 0.0742 0.0592
308
Shahin V. Bayramov, Gulsura Y. Mehdiyeva, Agil A. Eyvazov y Elchin R. Mustafayev
Diversication Rate of Energy Balance and Energy Export Demand Risk Impacts on Economic
Growth: The Case of Azerbaijan
HHİ HHİ
(t-1)
-0.005514 0.002805 0.007984 0.351343 0.7287 0.7780
Sİ Sİ (t-1) 0.009369 -0.006399 0.008848 -0.723188 0.4772 0.3922
REEDİ REEDİ
(t-1)
0.352115 -0.065425 0.114416 -0.571819 0.5738 0.4579
With intercept, no trend (Δy
t
= α + β * y
t-1
+ ν
t
)
R-
squared
coefcient
Std.error
t-
statistics
probability
Mac-
Kinnon
one sided
p-value
GDPG
(t)
GDPG
(t-1)
0.195392 0.392902 0.173986 -2.258246 0.0347 0.1929
C 0.057578 0.046920 1.227155 0.2333
HHİ HHİ
(t-1)
0.153489 -0.189842 0.097288 -1.951339 0.0645 0.3046
C 0.117139 0.058980 1.986079 0.0602
Sİ Sİ (t-1) 0.165144 -0.197806 0.097052 -2.038148 0.0543 0.2697
C 0.117747 0.059484 1.979491 0.0610
REEDİ REEDİ
(t-1)
0.476233 -0.534506 0.244970 -2.181922 0.0419 0.2177
D
(REED
(t-1)
-0.330260 0.203399 -1.623700 0.1209
C 8.859835 4.175423 2.121901 0.0472
With intercept and trend (Δy
t
= α + λ * t + β * y
t-1
+ ν
t
)
R-
squared
coefcient
Std.error
t-
statistics
probability
Mac-
Kinnon
one-sided
p-value
GDPG
(t)
GDPG
(t-1)
0.240454 -0.444174 0.179499 -2.474519 0.0224 0.3361
0.144750 0.092663 1.562120 0.1339
-0.006628 0.006085 -1.089287 0.2890
HHİ HHİ
(t-1)
0.265847 -0.136742 0.097675 - 1.399978 0.1768 0.8334
C 0.099487 0.057180 1.739898 0.0972
trend -0.001204 0.000688 -1.749538 0.0955
309
CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 39 Nº 68 (Enero - Junio 2021): 290-314
Sİ Sİ
(t-1)
0.249166 -0.138972 0.102183 -1.360035 0.1890 0.8454
C 0.067300 0.066921 1.005659 0.3266
trend 0.001210 0.000809 1.496027 0.1503
REEDİ Sİ
(t-1)
0.375243 -0.708931 0.206834 -3.427531 0.0027 0.0722
C 12.56449 4.934908 2.546042 0.0192
trend -0.127067 0.282463 -0.449854 0.6577
Table 5. Stationarity GDPG
t
, HHİ
t
, SI
t
and REEDİ
t
time series
Note: calculation by the authors
Thus, Table 5 shows that GDPG
t
, HHİ
t
and SI
t
time series are not
stationary for all three models. REEDİ
t
time series is stationary only in case
of “with trend and intercept” but only by 10% signicance. It should be noted
that the fact that the time series characterizing the indicators involved in
the study are not stationary does not mean that the regression relationship
between them is “spurious”. Thus, if the ε
it
residues in the regression
relationship between these indicators is stationary, then the regression
relationship can be approached as a “truth” relationship, as stationarity
of ε
it
indicates co-integration of the independent and dependent variables.
Therefore, we will need to check the stationarity of the ε
it
residues in each
pair of regression relationships from the equation (1).
We will test stationarity of ε
it
residual time series where ε
it
can be
estimated by three models as following
1) ε̂
it
= y
it
– b * x
it
;
2) ε̂
it
= y
it
– b * x
it
- c ;
3) ε̂
it
= y
it
– b * x
it
- c - δ * t
And we will apply ADF test for
ε̂
it
= γ * ε̂
t-1
+ ν
t
(2)
For stationarity ε
it
residual time series according to equation (2) we will
use MacKinnon critical value as in the Table 8.
310
Shahin V. Bayramov, Gulsura Y. Mehdiyeva, Agil A. Eyvazov y Elchin R. Mustafayev
Diversication Rate of Energy Balance and Energy Export Demand Risk Impacts on Economic
Growth: The Case of Azerbaijan
1% 5% 10%
1) y
t
= β * x
t
+ ε
t
-3.39 -2.76 -2.45
2) y
t
=β
1
+ β
2
* x
t
+ ε
t
-3.96 -3.37 -3.07
3) y
t
= β
1
+ δ * t + β
2
* x
t
+ ε
t
-3.98 -3.42 -3.13
Table 8. Critical values for cointegration (τ
c
)
Source: Davidson and MacKinnon (1993)
As we will use equation y
t
= β
1
+ β
2
* x
t
+ ε
t
for critical values of τ
c
will be (-3.96) for 1%, (-3.37) for 5% and (-3.07) for 10% signicance.
Testing of residuals stationarity by ADF show that there are
cointegration between 1) GDPG
t
and HHI
t
; 2) GDPG and SI
t
; 3)
GDPG and REEDİ
t
. But cointegration between GDPG
t
-HHI
t
and
GDPG
t
-Sİ
t
has 5% signicance, and cointegration between GDPG
t
-
REEDİ
t
has 10% signicance (Table 9).
GDP
t
-HHI
t
GDP
t
-SI
t
GDP
t
-REEDI
t
ε̂
it
= γ * ε̂
t-1
+ ν
t
R-squared 0.312023 0.299978 0.227594
-0.618788 -0.592882 -0.461068
Std.error 0.200490 0.197601 0.180898
t-statistcs -3.086374 -3.000404 -2.548773
probability 0.0056 0.0068 0.0183
MacKinnon one –
sided p-value
0.0037 0.0045 0.0133
Table 9. Stationarity of ε
it
residuals time series by ADF tests
Note: calculated by the authors
Discussion
As one of the rich countries with oil and gas resources, as well as one
of the countries whose exports and revenues are mainly related to energy
exports, in Azerbaijan, the nature of the impacts of energy diversication
rate and the risk to energy exports demand on economic growth are
consistent with the impact of oil and gas revenues on macroeconomic
311
CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 39 Nº 68 (Enero - Junio 2021): 290-314
indicators. Thus, in the studies conducted by Alekhina and Yoshino (2018),
Hassan and Abdullah (2014), Olayungbo and Adediran (2017), rising of oil
prices (that is, increasing in energy demand on the world market) has a
positive effect on economic growth by increasing the country’s oil revenues.
Conclusions
Azerbaijan is relatively rich in energy resources. Also, stability has been
observed in the production and export of primary energy products over
the past decades. All this indicates that the country’s energy security in the
short term is ensured. In the coming years, gas production will increase,
while oil production will decrease - this will prevent a signicant reduction
in the energy balance. Unfortunately, the share of energy received from
renewable energy sources in the country’s energy balance is small (about
3%). At the same time, the energy obtained from these sources is used
mainly for the production of electricity. Given the fact that the bulk of the
country’s energy balance is hydrocarbons, the level of diversication is low.
For this reason, future reductions in hydrocarbon reserves could jeopardize
the country’s energy security. As a result, we conclude that in order to
ensure energy security it is necessary to develop renewable energy sources.
There is positive relationship between energy security and economic growth
in Azerbaijan. Thus, increasing energy security is stimulating economic
growth.
Bibliographic References
ALEKHINA, Victoriia; YOSHINO, Naoyuki. 2018. “Impact of World Oil Prices
on an Energy Exporting Economy Including Monetary Policy. ADBI
Working Paper 828” In: Asian Development Bank Institute. Available
online. In: https://www.adb.org/publications/impact-world-oil-prices-
energy-exporting-economy-including-monetary-policy. Consultation
date: 26/12/2019.
AL-MONEEF, Majid. 2006. The Contribution of the Oil Sector to Arab
Economic Development. Roundtable. Available online. In: http://
www.adelinotorres.info/mediooriente/arabes_petroleo_e_
desenvolvimento_dos_paises_arabes.pdf. Consultation date:
26/12/2019.
ANG, Beng W; CHOONG, Wei Lim; NG, Tsan Sheng. 2015. “Energy security:
Denitions, dimensions and indexes” In: Renewable and Sustainable
Energy Reviews. Available online. In: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
rser.2014.10.064. Consultation date: 26/12/2019.
312
Shahin V. Bayramov, Gulsura Y. Mehdiyeva, Agil A. Eyvazov y Elchin R. Mustafayev
Diversication Rate of Energy Balance and Energy Export Demand Risk Impacts on Economic
Growth: The Case of Azerbaijan
APERC. 2019. Asia Pacic Energy Research Centre. Available online. In:
https://aperc.or.jp/. Consultation date: 26/12/2019.
APERGIS, Nicholas; AYE, Goodness; BARROS, Carlos; GUPTA, Rangan;
WANKE, Peter. 2015. “Energy efciency of selected OECD countries: a
slacks-based model with undesirable outputs” In: Energy Econ. Available
online. In: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.05.022. Consultation
date: 26/12/2019.
BALITSKIY, Sergey; BILAN, Yuriy; STRIELKOWSKI, Wadim. 2014. “Energy
security and economic growth in the European union” In: Journal of
Security and Sustainability. Issues 4, No. 2, pp. 123-130.
BANDURA, Romina. 2008. A Survey of Composite Indices Measuring Country
Performance: 2008 Update. United Nations Development Programme,
Ofce of Development Studies (UNDP/ODS Working Paper). New York,
USA.
CHERP, Aleh. 2012. Global Energy Assessment-Toward a Sustainable Future.
Cambridge University Press and the International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis. Cambridge, UK, Laxenburg, Austria.
CODONI, Rene; PARK, Hi-Chun, RAMANI, KV (eds). 1985. Integrated energy
planning: a manual. Asian and Pacic Development Centre. Kuala
Lumpur, Malaysia.
COSTANTINI, Valeria; GRACCEVA, Francesco; MARKANDYA, Anil; VICINI,
Giorgio. 2007. “Security of energy supply: Comparing scenarios from a
European perspective” In: Energy Policy. Vol. 35, Issue 1, pp. 210-226.
DAVIDSON, Russell; MACKINNON, James G. 1993. Estimation and İnference
in Econometrics. Oxford University Press. New York, USA. p. 708.
DIKE, Jude Chukwudi. 2013. “Measuring the security of energy exports demand
in OPEC economies” In: Energy Policy. Vol 60, pp. 594-600.
DREGER, Christian; RAHMANI, Teymur. 2014. The Impact of Oil Revenues
on the Iranian Economy and the Gulf States, IZA Discussion Papers, No.
8079, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). Bonn, Germany.
ERAHMAN, Qodri Febrilian; PURWANTO, Widodo Wahyu; SUDIBANDRIYO,
Mahmud; HIDAYATNO, Akhmad. 2016. “An assessment of Indonesia’s
energy security index and comparison with seventy countries” In: Energy.
Available online. In: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.100.
Consultation date: 26/12/2019.
GASSER, Patrick. 2020. “A review on energy security indices to compare
country performances” In: Energy Policy. Vol. 139. Pp. 111-339.
313
CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 39 Nº 68 (Enero - Junio 2021): 290-314
GULALIYEV, Mayis. G; MUSTAFAYEV, Elchin. R; MEHDIYEVA, Gulsura.
Y. 2020a. “Assessment of Solar Energy Potential and Its Ecological-
Economic Efciency: Azerbaijan Case” In: Sustainability. Available
online. In: https://doi.org/10.3390/su12031116. Consultation date:
05/05/2020.
GULALIYEV, Mayis; YUZBASHIYEVA, Gulsen; MAMEDOVA, Gulnara;
ABASOVA, Samira; SALAHOV, Fariz; ASKEROV, Ramil. 2020b.
“Consumer Surplus Changing in the Transition from State Natural
Monopoly to the Competitive Market in the Electricity Sector in the
Developing Countries: Azerbaijan Case” In: International Journal of
Energy Economics and Policy. Vol 10, No 2, pp. 265-275.
HASSAN, Khalid; ABDULLAH, Azrai. 2014. Effect of Oil Revenue and the
Sudan Economy: Econometric Model for Services Sector GDP. Global
Conference on Business & Social Science-2014, GCBSS-2014, 15th &
16th December. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
HEIDARIAN, Jamshid; GREEN, Rodney D. 1989. “The impact of oil-export
dependency on a developing country the case of Algeria” In: Energy
Economics. Vol. 11, Issue 4, pp. 247-261.
HUGHES, Llewelyn; PHILLIP, Y. Lipscy. 2006. “The politics of energy” In:
Ann. Rev. Political Sci. Vol 16. Pp. 449-469.
HUMBATOVA, Sugra Ingilab; HAJIYEV, Natig Qadim-Oglu. 2019. Oil Factor
in Economic Development. Energies. Available online. In: https://doi.
org/10.3390/en12081573. Consultation date: 05/05/2020.
IEA. 2004. “Energy statistics manual” In: International Energy Agency. Paris,
France.
IEA. 2007. Climate Policy and Energy Security. Available online. In: https://
www.iea.org/reports/energy-security-and-climate-policy. Consultation
date: 19/12/2019.
MAHMOOD, Tahir; AYAZ, Muhammed Tayyab. 2018. “Energy security
and economic growth in Pakistan” In: Pakistan Journal of Applied
Economics. Vol 28 No.1, pp. 47-64
MUÑOZ, Beatriz; GARCÍA-VERDUGO, Javier; SAN-MARTÍN, Enrique. 2015.
“Quantifying the geopolitical dimension of energy risks: A tool for energy
modelling and planning” In: Energy. Vol 82, pp. 479-500.
OLAYUNGBO, D. Oluseun; ADEDIRAN, Kazeem A. 2017. “Effects of Oil
Revenue and Institutional Quality on Economic Growth with an
ARDL Approach” In: Energy and Policy Research. Available online. In:
314
Shahin V. Bayramov, Gulsura Y. Mehdiyeva, Agil A. Eyvazov y Elchin R. Mustafayev
Diversication Rate of Energy Balance and Energy Export Demand Risk Impacts on Economic
Growth: The Case of Azerbaijan
https://doi.org/10.1080/23815639.2017.1307146. Consultation date:
19/12/2019.
SOVACOOL, Benjamin K; MUKHERJEE, Ishani. 2011. “Conceptualizing and
measuring energy security: A synthesized approach” In: Energy. Vol. 36,
No. 8, pp. 5343-5355.
SSCRA. 2020. Available online. In: https://www.stat.gov.az/source/balance_
fuel/. Consultation date: 19/08/2020.
STIRLING, Andy. 1998. On the Economics and Analysis of Diversity. SPRU
Electronic Working Paper Series. Paper No. 28.
STIRLING, Andy. 2009. “Multicriteria diversity analysis: A novel heuristic
framework for appraising energy portfolios” Available online. In: https://
doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.02.023. Consultation date: 19/12/2019.
TURTON, Hal; BARRETO, Leonardo. 2006. “Long-term security of energy
supply and climate change” In: Energy Policy. Volume 34, Issue 15, pp.
2232-2250.
UN. 1982. Concepts and methods in energy statistics, with special reference
to energy accounts and balances: a technical report. Series F No. 29,
Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Available
online. In: https://unstats.un.org/unsd/publication/SeriesF/
SeriesF_29E.pdf. Consultation date: 19/12/2019.
VALDÉS, Javier. 2018. “Arbitrariness in Multidimensional Energy Security
Indicators” In: Ecological Economics. Available online. In: https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.09.002. Consultation date: 19/12/2019.
WB. 2020. World Bank Open data. Available online. In: https://data.worldbank.
org. Consultation date: 19/12/2019.
WEC. 2019. World Energy Council. Available online. In: https://trilemma.
worldenergy.org. Consultation date: 19/12/2019.
YERGIN, Daniel. 1988. “Energy security in the 1990s” In: Council on Foreign
Relations. Vol. 67, No. 1, pp. 110-132.
ISSN 0798- 1406 ~ De pó si to le gal pp 198502ZU132
Cues tio nes Po lí ti cas
Planilla de suscripción 2015
Nom bre ____________________________________________________
Ins ti tu ción __________________________________________________
Di rec ción___________________________________________________
Ciu dad ________________________País_________________________
Che que de ge ren cia a nom bre de: Univer si dad del Zu lia (LUZ),
Fa cul tad de Cien cias Ju rí di cas y Po lí ti cas, In gre sos Pro pios
Ban co Oc ci den tal de Des cuen to, Cuen ta co rrien te Nº 212700890-9
Ta ri fa de sus crip ción por un año (dos nú me ros):
Ve ne zue la: Bs. 80 + En vío
Ejem plar so lo: Bs. 40 + En vío
Amé ri ca La ti na $ 40 + En vío
Resto del mundo $ 50 + Envío
Esta pla ni lla debe ser en via da a la si guien te dirección:
Re vis ta “Cues tio nes Po lí ti cas”
Fa cul tad de Cien cias Ju rí di cas y Po lí ti cas
Ins ti tu to de Es tu dios Po lí ti cos y De re cho Pú bli co
Apar ta do Pos tal 526, Ma ra cai bo Ve ne zue la
Puede adelantar información por: cues tio nes po li ti cas@gmail.com
~ loi chi ri nos por til lo@gmail.com
Planilla de suscripción
